Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist and one of the founders of Cliodynamics, the mathematical and data-driven study of long-term historical dynamics. Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Research Associate at the University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut, he conducts research at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical sociology, mathematical modeling, and the construction of large historical databases. He is the driving force behind the Seshat Global History Databank, a large-scale collaborative project that systematically tests theories about the rise and fall of complex societies. His books include Ages of Discord (2016), Ultrasociety (2015), and End Times (2023), which examines elite overproduction and political disintegration, the subject of this conversation.
Peter Turchin
Interviewed by Nicolas Sperry-Guillou
April 21, 2026, UM6P Benguerir
Content:
0:00 Introduction
1:15 From Biology to History: Peter Turchin’s Conversion
3:11 What is Cliodynamics?
4:32 Why Societies Collapse
8:20 Elite Overproduction: The Musical Chairs Analogy
10:00 Concrete Examples: United states.
13:17 The 2010 Prediction on American Instability
15:36 Trump as a Counter-Elite: Historical Parallels
18:32 Ibn Khaldun: A Precursor to Cliodynamics
23:33 A Universal Theory
25:32 The Wealth Pump and Possible Solutions
30:43 How Complex Societies Were Born: The Role of War
33:55 Peaceful Competition Between Nations
Audio, video, and editing by Multimedia Center – UM6P Business and Management Cluster & Samia Erraji
