{"id":3730,"date":"2026-06-01T17:10:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T16:10:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/?p=3730"},"modified":"2026-06-10T11:47:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T10:47:06","slug":"overproduction-of-elites-and-social-instability-introduction-to-cliodynamics-peter-turchin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/?p=3730","title":{"rendered":"Overproduction of Elites and Social Instability. A conversation with Peter Turchin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/peterturchin.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Peter Turchin<\/strong><\/a> is a complexity scientist and one of the founders of <em>Cliodynamics,<\/em> the mathematical and data-driven study of long-term historical dynamics. Project Leader at the <a href=\"https:\/\/csh.ac.at\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Complexity Science Hub Vienna<\/strong><\/a>, Research Associate at the University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut, he conducts research at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical sociology, mathematical modeling, and the construction of large historical databases. He is the driving force behind the <a href=\"https:\/\/seshat-db.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Seshat Global History Databank<\/strong><\/a>, a large-scale collaborative project that systematically tests theories about the rise and fall of complex societies. His books include <em>Ages of Discord<\/em> (2016), <em>Ultrasociety<\/em> (2015), and <em>End Times<\/em> (2023), which examines elite overproduction and political disintegration, the subject of this conversation.<br \/>\n<span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/OP5Yt03IHGk?si=qUQaZ8InOMIEkdCH\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\">Peter Turchin<br \/>\nInterviewed by Nicolas Sperry-Guillou \u200b \u200b<br \/>\nApril 21, 2026, UM6P Benguerir<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><strong>Content:<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"0&nbsp;seconde\">0:00<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> Introduction <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=75s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"1 minute et 15&nbsp;secondes\">1:15<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> From Biology to History: Peter Turchin&#8217;s Conversion <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=191s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"3 minutes et 11&nbsp;secondes\">3:11<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> What is Cliodynamics? <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=272s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"4 minutes et 32&nbsp;secondes\">4:32<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> Why Societies Collapse <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=500s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"8 minutes et 20&nbsp;secondes\">8:20<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> Elite Overproduction: The Musical Chairs Analogy <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=600s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"10 minutes\">10:00<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> Concrete Examples: United states. <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=797s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"13 minutes et 17&nbsp;secondes\">13:17<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> The 2010 Prediction on American Instability <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=936s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"15 minutes et 36&nbsp;secondes\">15:36<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> Trump as a Counter-Elite: Historical Parallels <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=1112s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"18 minutes et 32&nbsp;secondes\">18:32<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> Ibn Khaldun: A Precursor to Cliodynamics <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=1413s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"23 minutes et 33&nbsp;secondes\">23:33<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> A Universal Theory <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=1532s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"25 minutes et 32&nbsp;secondes\">25:32<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> The Wealth Pump and Possible Solutions <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=1843s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"30 minutes et 43&nbsp;secondes\">30:43<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> How Complex Societies Were Born: The Role of War <br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"><a class=\"ytAttributedStringLink ytAttributedStringLinkCallToActionColor\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OP5Yt03IHGk&amp;t=2035s\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"33 minutes et 55&nbsp;secondes\">33:55<\/a><\/span><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\"> Peaceful Competition Between Nations<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"ytAttributedStringLinkInheritColor\" dir=\"auto\">Audio, video, and editing by Multimedia Center &#8211; UM6P Business and Management Cluster &amp; Samia Erraji \u200b \u200b <br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist and one of the founders of Cliodynamics, the mathematical and data-driven study of long-term historical dynamics. Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Research Associate at the University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut, he conducts research at the&#8230; <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/?p=3730\">Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,120,109],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-complexity","category-humanities","category-scientific-humanities"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3730"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3730\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3742,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3730\/revisions\/3742"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}