{"id":575,"date":"2023-08-19T10:29:06","date_gmt":"2023-08-19T10:29:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/?page_id=575"},"modified":"2023-10-14T20:32:53","modified_gmt":"2023-10-14T20:32:53","slug":"ivar-ekeland-the-climate-change-transition-bifurcation-or-catastrophe","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/?page_id=575","title":{"rendered":"Ivar Ekeland, The Climate Change. Transition, Bifurcation or Catastrophe?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>UM6P, 22 February 2023, 46mn&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Introductory texts (English, French and Arabic) by Samia Erraji<br \/>\nDrawing by Sophie Lenormand<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/seY2EvLe8Bg\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this conference, Ivar Ekeland discusses climate change and the impact of human activities on the Earth&#8217;s temperature and carbon dioxide levels. He presents a graph showing temperatures and CO2 concentrations over 50,000 years. Ekeland identifies a significant and sudden increase in temperatures and CO2 emissions in the past 100 years, which he refers to as a &#8220;shock.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ekeland then poses a fundamental question: how does a complex system in equilibrium react to a small nudge or disturbance? He suggests four possible responses:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Firstly, Smooth Transition: some believe that the system will adjust smoothly to the changes, leading to gradual and manageable increases in temperatures and CO2 levels. They argue that humans can adapt to higher temperatures and even benefit from certain effects like increased CO2 for plant growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Secondly, Qualitative Change: Ekeland draws parallels with mathematical concepts like buckling and bifurcation, suggesting that a small nudge could cause a qualitative change or abrupt transition in the climate system. He points out various qualitative changes already observed in the climate, such as shifts in monsoons and precipitation patterns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thirdly, Catastrophic Change: Ekeland references catastrophe theory and warns that some changes in the climate system might be irreversible, leading to catastrophic consequences. He mentions planetary thresholds, where certain situations become extremely sensitive to small changes in parameters, like the disruption of the Atlantic deep-water formation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The fourth answer is The Unexpected: Ekeland emphasizes the concept of not knowing what we don&#8217;t know, which can lead to unexpected outcomes. He highlights that managing climate change requires addressing complexity and uncertainty, as no single solution will be sufficient.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ekeland urges that solutions to climate change must be complex, involving interdisciplinary collaboration and humility. He advocates for a new perspective in education and research, where individuals from various fields work together to tackle the complex challenge of climate change. Ekeland also emphasizes the importance of the precautionary principle, which suggests that in situations of uncertainty, actions should err on the side of caution and avoid potential harm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overall, Ekeland&#8217;s talk highlights the urgency and complexity of climate change and calls for a collective effort to address this global challenge.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Samia Erraji<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Ivar Ekeland<\/strong> is a French mathematician, economist, and writer born in 1944. He has made significant contributions to mathematics, optimization theory, and mathematical economics. Ekeland has held prestigious academic positions and served as President of the University of Paris-Dauphine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of his most remarkableachievements is his work on catastrophe theory, where he highlighted the potential for abrupt and irreversible changes in complex systems, such as the climate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Among his notable books is <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Best of All Possible Worlds: Mathematics and Destiny<\/span><\/i> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(University of Chicago Press, 2006),<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> where he explores the connection between mathematics and philosophy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">_________________________________<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lors de cette conf\u00e9rence, Ivar Ekeland aborde le changement climatique et l&#8217;impact des activit\u00e9s humaines sur les temp\u00e9ratures terrestres et les niveaux de dioxyde de carbone. Il pr\u00e9sente un graphique montrant les temp\u00e9ratures et les concentrations de CO2 au cours de 50 000 ann\u00e9es. Ekeland identifie une augmentation significative et soudaine des temp\u00e9ratures et des \u00e9missions de CO2 au cours des 100 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, qu&#8217;il qualifie de &#8220;choc&#8221;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ekeland pose ensuite une question fondamentale : comment un syst\u00e8me complexe en \u00e9quilibre r\u00e9agit-il \u00e0 une petite perturbation ? Il propose quatre r\u00e9ponses possibles :<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Premi\u00e8rement, la Transition en douceur : Certains croient que le syst\u00e8me s&#8217;adapte aux changements, entra\u00eenant des augmentations progressives et g\u00e9rables des temp\u00e9ratures et des niveaux de CO2. Ils argumentent que les humains peuvent s&#8217;adapter \u00e0 des temp\u00e9ratures plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es et m\u00eame b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de certains effets, comme l&#8217;augmentation du CO2 pour la croissance des plantes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Deuxi\u00e8mement, le changement qualitatif : Ekeland fait des parall\u00e8les avec des concepts math\u00e9matiques tels que le flambage et la bifurcation, sugg\u00e9rant qu&#8217;une petite perturbation pourrait provoquer un changement qualitatif ou une transition abrupte dans le syst\u00e8me climatique. Il souligne diff\u00e9rents changements qualitatifs d\u00e9j\u00e0 observ\u00e9s dans le climat, tels que les changements de moussons et de pr\u00e9cipitations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Troisi\u00e8mement, le changement catastrophique : Ekeland fait r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 la th\u00e9orie des catastrophes et met en garde contre le fait que certains changements dans le syst\u00e8me climatique pourraient \u00eatre irr\u00e9versibles, entra\u00eenant des cons\u00e9quences catastrophiques. Il mentionne les seuils plan\u00e9taires, o\u00f9 certaines situations deviennent extr\u00eamement sensibles aux petits changements de param\u00e8tres, comme la perturbation de la formation des eaux profondes de l&#8217;Atlantique.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">La quatri\u00e8me r\u00e9ponse est l&#8217;inattendu : Ekeland insiste sur le fait de ne pas savoir ce que nous ne savons pas, ce qui peut entra\u00eener des r\u00e9sultats inattendus. Il souligne que la gestion du changement climatique n\u00e9cessite de traiter la complexit\u00e9 et l&#8217;incertitude, car aucune solution unique ne suffira.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.archipress.org\/reda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Ivar_Ekeland_22fev_Sophie_Lenormand-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-2547 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.archipress.org\/reda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Ivar_Ekeland_22fev_Sophie_Lenormand-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"397\"><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ekeland insiste sur le fait que les solutions au changement climatique doivent \u00eatre complexes, impliquant une collaboration interdisciplinaire et de l&#8217;humilit\u00e9. Il plaide en faveur d&#8217;une nouvelle perspective en mati\u00e8re d&#8217;\u00e9ducation et de recherche, o\u00f9 des individus de diff\u00e9rents domaines travaillent ensemble pour relever le d\u00e9fi complexe du changement climatique. Ekeland souligne \u00e9galement l&#8217;importance du principe de pr\u00e9caution, qui sugg\u00e8re que dans les situations d&#8217;incertitude, les actions devraient faire preuve de plus de prudence et \u00e9viter les dommages potentiels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">S.E<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ivar Ekeland est un math\u00e9maticien, \u00e9conomiste et \u00e9crivain, n\u00e9 \u00e0 Paris en 1944. Il a apport\u00e9 des contributions significatives aux math\u00e9matiques, \u00e0 la th\u00e9orie de l&#8217;optimisation et \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9conomie math\u00e9matique. Ekeland a occup\u00e9 des postes acad\u00e9miques prestigieux et a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sident de l&#8217;Universit\u00e9 de Paris-Dauphine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">L&#8217;une de ses r\u00e9alisations les plus remarquables est son travail sur la th\u00e9orie des catastrophes, o\u00f9 il a soulign\u00e9 le potentiel de changements abrupts et irr\u00e9versibles dans des syst\u00e8mes complexes, tel que le climat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Parmi ses livres notables, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Le meilleur des mondes possibles : math\u00e9matiques et destin\u00e9e <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(University of Chicago Press, 2006)<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&nbsp;explore le lien entre les math\u00e9matiques et la philosophie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">_________________________________<\/p>\n<p dir=\"rtl\" 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sans-serif;\"><strong>\u0625\u064a\u0641\u0627\u0631 \u0625\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062f<\/strong> \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0643\u0627\u062a\u0628 \u0648\u064f\u0644\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0633 \u0633\u0646\u0629 1944. \u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0647\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0647\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u062b\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a. \u0634\u063a\u0644 \u0625\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0635\u0628 \u0623\u0643\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u0645\u0648\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 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style=\"font-family: Thabit, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u0645\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0643\u062a\u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0629 <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0639\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0645\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0629: \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u064a\u0631<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0634\u064a\u0643\u0627\u063a\u0648 \u060c2006)<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a&nbsp;\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0644\u0633\u0641\u0629.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UM6P, 22 February 2023, 46mn&nbsp; Introductory texts (English, French and Arabic) by Samia Erraji Drawing by Sophie Lenormand In this conference, Ivar Ekeland discusses climate change and the impact of human activities on the Earth&#8217;s temperature and carbon dioxide levels. He presents a graph showing temperatures and CO2 concentrations over\u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/?page_id=575\">Lire plus \/ Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":873,"parent":1897,"menu_order":24,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,65,34],"tags":[75,74,31,76,201,202],"class_list":["post-575","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-complexity","category-resources","category-science-week","tag-catastrophe","tag-climat","tag-ivar-ekeland","tag-transition","tag-201","tag-202"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=575"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/575\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2661,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/575\/revisions\/2661"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1897"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cch.um6p.ma\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}